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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.